Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead
Feb 01, 2025

Investing.com - U.S. President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, exacerbating worries over the uncertain impact of an increase in global trade tensions. Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) and e-commerce giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) post quarterly returns, as well as weight-loss drugmakers Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY ) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO ). Meanwhile, new U.S. jobs data could provide a fresh glimpse into the state of labor demand in the world's largest economy -- and potentially factor into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. Here's your look at what's happening in markets in the week ahead.

1. Trump imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China

Tariffs, which have been a lingering source of uncertainty for markets in recent months, are set to be front of mind this week.

On Saturday, President Trump signed an executive order placing 25% levies on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% duty on goods incoming from China. The White House has said there are "tentative plans" for the tariffs to come into effect on Tuesday.

Trump had earlier threatened these countries with a February 1 tariff deadline in order to push them to roll out actions to stem the flow of illegal immigrants and the opiate fentanyl into the U.S. However, before the weekend, Trump suggested that there was little these countries could do to avoid the levies, which could disrupt trillions of dollars in annual trade.

Some economists have argued that Trump's move may also drive up inflationary pressures in the U.S., potentially slowing the pace of possible Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Indeed, Fed officials have adopted a wait-and-see approach to future monetary policy decisions, citing a murky economic outlook clouded by the prospect of tariffs.

Stock markets ended lower on Friday, weighed down by anxiety over Trump's trade stance. Analysts have widely flagged some type of a sell-off in equities on Monday.

2. Oil

The tariffs included a carve-out for energy products from Canada, with these items facing levies of 10%.

Crude oil makes up about a quarter of all imports the U.S. receives from Canada, worth roughly $100 billion in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau cited by Reuters.

Trump added that his administration is also projected to announce wider tariffs linked to oil and natural gas around February 18, a comment that sparked a jump in oil prices in extended hours trading on Friday.

Last week, both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude benchmarks finished lower, as traders worried that a sharp uptick in fuel costs would dent global economic activity and broader energy demand.

3. Jobs data

Elsewhere, investors will have the chance to parse through fresh labor market data this week, including the January jobs report on Friday.

Economists forecast that the U.S. added 154,000 roles last month, down from a blockbuster 256,000 in December. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is tipped to come in at 4.1%, matching the prior month's pace.

Average hourly earnings growth is seen at 0.3%, also equaling December's rate.

The figures will help to determine the state of labor demand in the beginning of the new year and may factor into how the Fed, which slashed interest rates several times in 2024, approaches monetary policy in the months to come.

Along with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target level, a robust jobs market helped underpin the central bank's decision last week to leave rates unchanged and signal that it was in no rush to bring borrowing costs down further.

4. Alphabet, Amazon to report

On the earnings front, more results from major technology companies are due out this week.

Highlighting the agenda is Google-parent Alphabet and e-commerce giant Amazon, which are set to unveil their quarterly figures on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.

As it was with these companies' Big Tech peers Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META ) last week, analysts will likely be keen to hear how Alphabet and Amazon executives view their artificial intelligence spending strategies following the emergence of a low-cost AI model from Chinese start-up DeepSeek.

DeepSeek said its model showed comparable performance to OpenAI's ChatGPT, but used less-advanced data and cost only around $6 million to build. Although doubts remains around the statement, it was enough to roil markets last week and pose questions around the necessity of billions of dollars in AI expenditures by some of Silicon Valley's most prominent businesses.

Semiconductor group Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM ) and chip designer Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM ) are also due to post their latest returns this week, as well as ride-hailer Uber (NYSE: UBER ).

Beyond tech, drugmakers Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY ) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO ), both of which have been at the forefront of a spike in popularity of new weight-loss treatments, are also expected to report.

5. Bank of England decision

The Bank of England holds its latest policy-setting meeting this week, and is widely expected to cut interest rates and hint at more reductions to come as the UK economy stagnates.

Economists anticipate the BoE will cut its benchmark rate to 4.5%, from 4.75%, on Thursday, when it will also update its economic growth and inflation forecasts.

Since the BoE published its last projections in November, the economy has stagnated and measures of inflation most closely watched by rate-setters dropped last month.

Analysts at Bank of America Securities have agreed with the consensus, expecting an 8-1 vote in favor of a reduction by the Monetary Policy Committee.

“The faster than expected drop in services inflation, weak growth and labor market loosening supports the case for a cut,” BOA analysts said, in a note dated January 31.