(1) Will
S&P 500
indexes find support at their 200-day moving averages? We think so. Sentiment is quite bearish and the next batch of economic indicators should confirm the economy is growing.
(2) Will the
Nasdaq
remain in its bullish channel? We expect to see some dip-buying following the rapid selloff.
(3) Will LargeCaps continue to outperform SMidCaps? Trump Turmoil 2.0 is weighing more on the latter than the former.
(4) Will Chinese stocks continue to rally led by technology stocks? The Chinese government is responding to Trump Tariffs 2.0 with more stimulative measures. US technology stocks, including the Magnificent-7, might be bottoming.
(5) Will the price of a barrel of
Brent crude oil
hold support around $69? It might given recent stimulus measures in China and Germany. Lower oil prices should stimulate more global economic growth and oil demand. Then again, oil supplies are plentiful.
(6) Will Germany's fiscal U-turn drive German and European stock prices still higher? That seems likely.
(7) How much higher might the
German government bond yield
go? It's likely to climb to 3.00% soon.
(8) Will the
euro
jump above 1.10? It might find quite a bit of resistance at that level. But if it blasts through that level than 1.20 is conceivable.
(9) Why is the price of
gold
rising so steadily? Central banks are continuing to add gold to their reserves as an alternative to the
dollar
.
(10) How many more
25bps fed funds rate cuts
are likely over the next 12 months? The fed funds rate futures market shows three more. We remain in the none-and-done camp.
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