Investing.com -- Deutsche Bank has upgraded DHL Group. (ETR: DHLn ) to "buy" from "hold," and raised its price target to €50 from €36, citing a more realistic earnings outlook and de-risked guidance.

Analysts noted, "We were concerned about the risk to management guidance and the lack of a turn in the freight cycle and this indeed has played out."

DHL Group on Thursday reported a strong Q4, with operating profit (EBIT) of €1.85 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 4%.

“(The) results allow us to pivot our view as guidance has been de-risked and re-based down to more achievable levels,” the analysts added.

The Express division led the gains, delivering EBIT of €1.08 billion—11% above expectations—driven by solid pricing strategies and cost controls. Overall revenue grew 6% year-over-year to €22.7 billion.

For 2025, DHL forecasts EBIT of at least €6 billion, slightly below the market consensus of €6.29 billion.

Its 2026 target has been revised to a more conservative €7 billion due to macroeconomic uncertainties. Analysts see this cautious approach as removing the overhang of overly ambitious projections.

To enhance shareholder returns, DHL announced a €3 billion share buyback program for 2025-2026, equating to €1.5 billion annually, boosting total cash returns—including dividends—to around 8%.

While the Post & Parcel division posted solid EBIT of €326 million and the eCommerce segment saw a 39% year-over-year jump to €106 million, the Global Forwarding & Freight division underperformed with EBIT of €255 million, 7% below expectations.