The gold ( XAU/USD ) price declined by 0.73% on Monday as traders began to reposition ahead of tomorrow's US inflation report .
"There is a slight pause in gold prices due to some mild profit-taking and a weaker stock market. However, we might see some safe-haven bids later", said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.
US stock index futures continued to fall yesterday, with the benchmark S&P 500 hitting a six-month low. The bearish sentiment in equities may have affected the metal market, triggering a minor sell-off. However, strong safe-haven demand, fuelled by geopolitical uncertainty, kept XAU/USD above the important $2,830 level, as traders continue to worry that rising trade tariffs may adversely affect the global economy.
Overall, the confluence of trade war concerns, recessionary fears, and disappointing economic figures creates a favourable environment for gold. XAU/USD might continue rising and establishing new record highs.
XAU/USD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the US JOLTS Job Openings report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The data may affect investors' interest rate expectations and trigger some volatility in XAU/USD. Higher-than-expected figures may lower the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Fed , potentially pushing XAU/USD below $2,870.
Lower-than-expected numbers will confirm that the US labour market is loosening, increasing the chances of an additional rate cut by the Fed later this year. In this case, XAU/USD may rise above $2,918.
"Signals are a bit mixed for spot gold as it managed to stabilise around support at $2,879 per ounce and started a bounce", said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
On Monday, the euro ( EUR/USD ) remained flat against the US dollar (USD). Investors are struggling to reconcile the conflicting signals of a potential US economic slowdown and stock market sell-off and the Trump administration's unpredictable trade policies regarding the eurozone.
Overall, markets have been focused on trade tensions since US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on top trading partners but later delayed them for a month due to fears of an economic slowdown. Wall Street stocks fell sharply on Monday, with the Nasdaq decreasing by over 4% to a six-month low, driven by a sell-off in technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services stocks.
However, the relative stability of EUR/USD during this drop suggests the market's anxiety is primarily focused on US-specific risks rather than a broader global risk-off scenario.
"The biggest story, besides the US dollar and a little of profit-taking going on, is the continued slide in the stock market and dropping US interest rates", said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
In addition, anticipated changes in domestic policies drive EUR/USD higher. 'The major move in the euro has been driven by a potential increase in government spending and the likelihood that European Central Bank may be a little more hawkish than they were planning', said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products, North America, at Moneycorp.
EUR/USD rose during the Asian session but fell during the early European trading hours. Today, the US JOLTS Job Openings report at 2:00 p.m. UTC may trigger some volatility in EUR/USD. Higher-than-expected numbers will increase the chances of the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping the interest rate unchanged for longer, potentially pushing EUR/USD below the 1.08000 level.
Lower-than-expected results will increase the chances of an additional rate cut by the Fed later this year, pushing EUR/USD above 1.08883.
The British pound ( GBP/USD ) lost 0.36% against the US dollar (USD) on Monday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded slightly from a major support level.
GBP/USD has been trading in an uptrend for most of 2025 due to a weakening US dollar. The greenback is pressured by persistent tariff risks and disappointing US economic data, leading investors to anticipate a more dovish monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the future.
Interest rate swaps market data implies a 27% chance of three 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year, whereas the probability of a similar move by the Bank of England (BoE) is less than 25%. Still, the balance is fragile, and investors could swiftly and significantly reassess their expectations. The weak U.K. data could break the bullish trend in GBP and cause investors to reposition themselves, shifting their bets towards a more dovish BoE outlook.
GBP/USD rose during the Asian session but fell during the early European trading sessions. US JOLTS Job Openings data, due at 2:00 p.m. UTCÂ today, may shift investors' monetary policy expectations and trigger volatility in GBP/USD.
Numbers exceeding the forecast may lower the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing GBP/USD towards 1.28100. Lower-than-expected results will confirm that the US labour market is loosening, pushing GBP/USD above 1.29461.