Latest iPhone 16 demand data ’disappointing’, KeyBanc says
Mar 13, 2025

Investing.com -- KeyBanc analysts reported mixed results from their latest iPhone sales data, with “sell-through -6% y/y” in February, falling below normal seasonal trends.

While the “carrier survey was slightly positive,” the firm said its proprietary Key First Look Data (KFLD) results were disappointing.

“Sell-through for the iPhone 16 increased seasonally m/m in February,” said the bank, with demand for “the iPhone 16 Pro Max still seeing the highest relative demand, followed by the Pro, as customers seek camera upgrades.”

However, they note that feedback from stores indicates demand for the iPhone 16e has been disappointing due to the higher price point.

They note that the iPhone 16e, launched on February 28, has been priced at $599, which is 40% higher than the SE3 at $429 and lower-end specs.

Additionally, “demand for the iPhone 16 Plus model remains the lowest as users who want a larger display usually opt for the Pro Max,” states KeyBanc.

February’s hardware spending trends were also said to be weak. “Our KFLD shows Indexed Spending -9% m/m, below the three-year average of -3% m/m, and -9% y/y vs. +6% y/y in January.”

The firm characterized this as negative, given it was seasonally weaker and declined y/y.

Looking ahead, KeyBanc expects growth to remain sluggish. “With 2025 iPhone growth expectations now 1% (down from 7% just two quarters ago), and with key catalysts around Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) Intelligence Siri upgrades now delayed, we think bulls will lose confidence in any upgrade cycle hope.”

KeyBanc reiterated its Underweight rating on Apple, citing concerns over the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence failing to drive meaningful changes to upgrade rates, increased competition in China, and “Apple’s premium valuation being unwarranted given AAPL’s inferior growth.”

The firm maintained its $200 price target on the stock.