The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?"

So far, following the FOMC decision , the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report ( Non-Farm Payroll number), we will probably have a good idea if the bounce is sustainable, or if we are about ready to resume the downtrend and yields back towards 5%.

Technically, we are reaching the channel that has kept the 10-year pressured since the spring of 2023. However, a break of the 50dma and channel resistance at 108'02 may be the trigger that actually squeezes the market much higher, sending yields falling at a rapid rate.

We'd expect that on a "weak" jobs report and the US Dollar to fall precipitously from here. However, we must keep in mind that the headline number has come in higher than expected 7 of the last 10 reports in 2023. So, a weak NFP report is not a given.