Policy & Regulation
Jul 18, 2024
Investors Shift Focus Amid Speculation Of Fed Rate Cuts
According to Bloomberg, a weeklong decline in almost every major group has led to speculation that the central bank may ease its efforts to control inflation. This has prompted a shift in investor focus. While data suggesting the Federal Reserve is close to cutting rates would typically support this trend, Thursday's market surge did not fully align with that expectation.Investors have moved away from 'over-crowded' megacap leaders and are now exploring 'down-cap' opportunities. In late trading hours, Treasury yields also experienced significant changes. Analysts caution that while there is enthusiasm about the broadening of US equity markets, there is also a risk of potential bull traps. The rotation into smaller-cap stocks is still in its early stages and cannot yet be confirmed as a long-term investment trend.Some digestion of this rotation is necessary after the significant market movements of the past week. Although the rotation could persist for weeks, driven by favorable economic data and an over-owned tech sector, some experts advise against aggressive allocations to cyclicals for anything other than tactical capital. Concerns about economic growth remain, with corporate earnings and Federal Reserve commentary suggesting that investors may be too complacent about slowdown risks.As the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, markets often react positively initially and for a short period afterward. However, the Fed typically cuts rates late in the economic cycle, not early when small-cap stocks usually gain attention. In the near term, the rotation into smaller stocks may continue as markets anticipate easier monetary conditions this fall. The key question is whether this will lead to a gradual cooling of inflation and job markets or a more abrupt and painful adjustment.
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Jul 18, 2024
Ripple Gains Advantage In Legal Battle With SEC
According to CryptoPotato, Ripple has made significant strides in its ongoing legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The conflict, which began in December 2020, centers around allegations that Ripple and some of its executives conducted an unregistered securities offering through certain XRP sales. The case has seen numerous developments over the years and entered its trial phase in April 2024.Ripple has secured three partial court victories in 2023, which many believe have given the company an upper hand. The most notable of these occurred nearly a year ago when Judge Torres ruled that Ripple’s programmatic sales to secondary trading platforms do not constitute offers of investment contracts. Following this, the court dismissed the SEC's intention to appeal the decision, and Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Executive Chairman Chris Larsen were cleared of all charges.Despite these victories, the final resolution of the case remains pending and could be delayed indefinitely due to the complexity of the legal process and potential appeals. However, some experts are optimistic about a near-term resolution. American lawyer Jeremy Hogan predicts the case could conclude before the end of the summer, while Fred Rispoli has suggested a probable settlement date of July 31. Ripple’s CEO Garlinghouse also expressed hope for a resolution “very soon,” though he did not confirm whether settlement talks are currently underway.The anticipation of a resolution has positively impacted the price of XRP. On July 18, the token’s price briefly surpassed $0.63, a level last seen in March, and its market cap rose above $34 billion before settling at $32.5 billion. This surge temporarily made XRP the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.The outcome of the Ripple v SEC lawsuit remains uncertain, but its resolution could have significant implications for the price of XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market.
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