Funds
Oct 17, 2024
Homebuilder confidence hit 4-month high in October. Here's why.
According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), confidence among home builders rose to a four-month high in October. Jim Tobin, NAHB CEO, joins Wealth! to break down the state of the housing market and how the election may impact home builders. Tobin explains that home builder confidence is up because of falling interest rates. He tells Yahoo Finance that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle "is really giving our members, and our survey members in particular, a feeling that we're on the backside of the bad news and that we are looking forward to a lower interest rate environment, certainly for mortgage rates in the future, and that the market is going to come back strong." As the election looms ahead, Tobin explains, "I travel all over the country, talk to builders and homebuyers everywhere. And there really is this kind of constriction in the market because of the political environment right now. Knowing who's going to be at the top of the economy and what kind of philosophy is going to take hold as far as the next four years, I think has really kind of put people in a bit of a pause here, even though rates have fallen." With so much uncertainty, he advises against waiting on the sidelines for Congress to act. While the Harris Campaign has promised incentives for both home buyers and builders, he explains that these plans will have to work their way through Congress, which could take a long time before coming into law. He adds that both candidates see housing — particularly supply — as a top priority. He particularly likes policies focused on supply more than on prices, like measures such as rent control. "I think anything that suppresses prices artificially and gets federal intervention into the marketplace, that scares me," he says. "I think overall, the fact that we've got both candidates talking about housing really earns them a lot of credibility in our builders' minds, and gives us opportunity that no matter who wins the white House, housing is going to be the top of their agenda," Tobin concludes. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Wealth here. This post was written by Melanie Riehl
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Oct 17, 2024
Two factors setting up utilities to outperform in 2025
The surge in artificial intelligence has sparked a growing appetite for energy and power, creating a bullish environment for utilities (XLU). This trend has propelled the sector to outshine the broader market, prompting Evercore ISI to upgrade the utilities sector from In Line to Outperform. Evercore ISI managing director Durgesh Chopra, who covers Power and Utilities, joins Morning Brief to shed light on why he foresees continued growth in the sector. Chopra points to two key factors driving the potential outperformance of regulated traditional utilities. First, their current valuations are attractive, trading at a 20% discount. Second, the sector benefits from improving fundamentals, including lower interest rates, easing inflation, and increasing electricity demand. These elements combine to create what Chopra describes as "a great setup for utilities" as markets approach 2025. Addressing the potential impact of the upcoming election on the utility sector, Chopra notes while utilities have historically thrived under Democratic leadership, the sector's current focus on reducing carbon emissions has shifted the dynamics. This transition is more closely tied to economic development rather than politics. "Whether it's Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, I think the policy backdrop is going to be very supportive," Chopra states. As of late, Big Tech has been leaning into and making deals with nuclear energy developers to power their AI data centers, including Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet's Google (GOOG, GOOGL). Kairos Power Co-Founder and CEO Mike Laufer sat down with Yahoo Finance earlier this week to elaborate on the energy startup's nuclear agreement with Google. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. This post was written by Angel Smith
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Oct 16, 2024
It's 'unclear' if US AI chip controls work: Strategist
The US government is reportedly considering capping AI chip sales to certain countries. The move would affect chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Macrolens founder, chief strategist, and managing principal Brian McCarthy joins Seana Smith on Catalysts to discuss the potential export rules and how they could affect the global artificial intelligence (AI) race. “It's unclear whether yesterday's news suggesting there could be tightened restrictions on the UAE and Saudi Arabia is or isn't related to those countries possibly funneling chips to China because it's very hard to sort of bottle up China's access to these chips through third parties,” McCarthy tells Yahoo Finance. He explains that despite the US limiting chip exports to China due to national security risks, widespread smuggling of the tech persists. Due to chip smugglers, “There are many, many holes in this net,” McCarthy says, adding the US government’s export rules are doing something as “clearly the cost of accessing these chips has gone up for Chinese entities, but the net has a lot of holes in it, and it's really unclear how effective these controls are slowing China's ambitions in the AI and other related spaces.” The strategist says beyond the effectiveness of the rules of keeping the chips out of China another question is how much national defense prerogatives “are tied up in the economic race.” He adds, “That’s really unclear to what extent each of those factors is driving US policy at this point. Clearly, AI has a lot of applications in defense that it's important that each side feels it's important that they have access to. As far as the economic stuff goes, it’s interesting to speculate as to whether that may change.” “I know [China is] behind in chips, and [the US will] continue to move forward." McCarthy says, adding “it is a question of whether there's justification on economic grounds to be trying to halt the advancement of any country that's just trying to build businesses.” McCarthy notes his view that the US doesn’t “really need to go out of our way to halt China's economic advancement. They have plenty of domestic problems that they are contending with at this point.” To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. This post was written by Naomi Buchanan.
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