Funds
Aug 06, 2024
The market is 'overreacting' to weak labor report: Economist
The major indexes (^DJI,^GSPC, ^IXIC) are bouncing back after a three-day sell-off triggered by a weaker-than-expected jobs report in July. As investors continue to be wary of a recession, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok joins Catalysts to discuss the market reaction and break down why tech, in particular, is seeing a massive sell-off. Slok notes that despite the weak labor report, there's not much other evidence that points to a recession: "Daily data for how many people fly on airplanes as of last Friday is still strong. Daily data from OpenTable for how many people go to restaurants is still strong. Weekly data for retail sales from Redbook is also still strong. Hotel occupancy rates, the weekly data also still strong." He reiterates Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's emphasis on the totality of the data, and adds, "the market is overreacting to just one data point." He believes that the tech sell-off is being driven by two factors. The first is because "valuations got so stretched and earnings expectations were simply inconsistent with where valuations were." Therefore, when some of the Magnificent Seven tech names missed expectations, investors reassessed their positions. The second boils down to the carry trade unwinding: "You've seen a reversal of a lot of trades where essentially investors were borrowing in yen. Remember, in yen, interest rates up until literally two weeks ago were zero. Now they went up to 25 basis points... dollar-yen has moved from 161 down to 144. That means that if I borrowed in yen, now I need to pay back in yen. If yen is more expensive, that means that I need to pay back more." Note: Apollo Global Management is Yahoo's parent company. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts. This post was written by Melanie Riehl
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Aug 06, 2024
These investments are being 'disguised' by Big Tech 'wreck'
Despite a global market sell-off in Monday's trading session, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing director and global head of technical strategy Mark Newton believes there are still healthy areas of the market. He joins Market Domination to discuss some of the investment opportunities overlooked during the day's market pullback. Newton points to the XLB healthcare sector ETF (XLB) as one opportunity for investors, as it has steadily grown in 2024 and hit record highs despite an ongoing sell-off since mid-July. He also highlights that equal-weighted industrials and financial ETFs from Invesco — (RSPN) and (RSPF) — both hit new all-time highs last week. He notes that these areas of the market are being "disguised" and "camouflaged" by the "Big Tech wreck." "Investors have been overexposed, have huge concentration in technology. So a big sell-off like that in an area which is a major focus certainly hurts," Newton adds. "But I would say that honestly, for those that diversify, there are plenty of parts of the market that are still working well. And now with a big breakdown on the dollar, that eventually is going to start to aid emerging markets when we can see a little bit of stabilization to this." Despite bitcoin (BTC-USD) having its worst week since November 2022, Newton argues that the movement is "really just a drop in the bucket" : "I don't see much more deterioration beyond really the mid to high 40s. And I think we will bottom and we can pull out of this. But it is going to be important for the broader risk asset space to stabilize. It's very unusual and unlikely to see bitcoin simply surge back to new highs if the rest of the world is falling apart. So we need to really see some effort and dollar-yen holding to see rates go down a little bit less severely." For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination. This post was written by Melanie Riehl
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