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Bonds
Sep 18, 2024
10-2 Yield Curve Steepening Goes Unnoticed Amid Potential Economic Trouble Ahead
The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step… The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion to...
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Sep 17, 2024
Era of High-Yields Is Ending - How to Prepare Your Portfolio For the Coming Shift
The beginning of the end for the current run of peak yields looks set to start tomorrow (Wed., Sep. 18) as the Federal Reserve is expected to roll out its first interest rate cut. On the eve of...
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Sep 16, 2024
Has the Bond Market Fully Priced in the Start of Policy Easing?
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this week. The question is whether the bond market has fully priced in the start of policy easing? It’s tempting to say “yes” after reviewing...
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Sep 13, 2024
Is Yield Curve Still a Reliable Recession Indicator?
The US yield curve is considered to be a good leading indicator of US recession, with an inversion of the curve invariably occurring prior to the start of a recession. However, a Wolf Street article...
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Sep 12, 2024
10-Year US Treasury Yield: Unusually High Premium Is Finally Starting to Normalize
The premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield continued to fall in August relative to the “fair value” estimate based on a model developed by CapitalSpectator.com. The market rate remains moderately...
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Sep 12, 2024
Bonds: 2019's Easing Cycle Set Stage for a Rally - 2024 to Follow a Similar Path?
2019 was the last year investors saw what could be called a “normal” easing cycle driven by macroeconomic growth concerns and falling S&P 500 EPS estimates. That was the third year of President...
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Sep 11, 2024
The Best Bonds to Buy for a Recession
One year ago, I wrote to you that it was time to buy bonds again. The “index huggers” who only know SPY thought we were nuts for talking fixed income. The popular narrative at the time (which aged...
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Aug 28, 2024
Beware of These 4 Yield Curve Patterns as Fast Un-Inversion Takes Hold
The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...
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Aug 21, 2024
Bond Market Momentum Firmly Bullish With All Eyes on Powell's Jackson Hole Address
Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...
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Aug 19, 2024
This Steady 14% Dividend Could Crush Stocks Well Into 2025
Stock market predictions, of course, are just that—predictions. All of them (including mine!) should be taken with a grain of salt. I normally prefer to avoid making them. But every now and then I...
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