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Bonds

Curve Spreads Climb Closer to Breakeven: What It Could Mean for the S&P 500

Signs of cooling inflation and a slowing but still growing economy have helped drive Treasury yields lower across the curve (today’s move notwithstanding). However, the recent shift on the yield...

10-Year Treasury Yield: Gap to Fair Value May Continue to Shrink Further

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...

Selloff in Junk Bonds Could Signal Trouble Ahead for Stocks

I wrote about long bonds TLT starting in June and how they could be the next big trade. They were but for a week or so only at this point. The reasoning was that high yields would start to come down...

Bonds Continue to Post Gains as September Rate Cuts Get Priced In

Year-to-date returns for US fixed income are skewing positive this year ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement this afternoon. Although the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged...

Eurozone Data, German Economic Woes Widen Bund-UST 10Y Spread

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

What the Divergence Between T-Bond Yields and Commodity/Gold Ratio Tells Us

In a blog post in February-2017, we discussed an age-old relationship between interest rates and prices. The following chart-based comparison of the T-Bond yield and the commodity/gold ratio is a...

Long Bonds: Breakout Above July Highs Set to Stoke Recession Fears

Over the weekend we covered the weekly charts of the Economic Modern Family. All the original Modern Family (Russell 2000 (IWM), Retail XRT, Transportation IYT, Regional Banks KRE, Biotechnology...

10-Year Yield to Head Much Lower as Fed Gears Up for Cutting Rates in September

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

Bond Market Annual Returns Could Trend Upward: Beware of Curve Steepening

The last time the Fed cut the Fed funds rate, the Fed easing monetary policy started with Janet Yellen in Q4 ’16 and ended with Jay Powell in late 2018. The TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF...

Will Inflation Data Continue to Support the Bond Rally?

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...

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