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Bonds

10-Year Treasury Yields Inch Closer to Fair Value, but There's Still Room to Run

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate, based on the average of three models run by...

Bond Market Could Be Hinting at Inflationary Steepening of the 10-2 Year Curve

After a gentle disinflationary easing, the bond market could be hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread.A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or...

Rates Spark: The Side Effect of Weighing the Scenarios

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

Healthy Labor Market, Inflation Approaching 2%: Is the Fed's Job Done?

Macro investing without deeply understanding bond markets is like eating soup with a fork.You can still somehow make it, but it’s cumbersome and unproductive. We are at a crucial juncture for...

German Bond Yields Reach Sink or Swim Moment: What's Next?

Just as interest rates are pulling back, one particular government rate appears to be nearing an important moment.The 10-Year Germany Bond yield. Above is a long-term “monthly” chart of...

Are Junk Bonds Starting to Weaken? Stock Bulls Hope Not

Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds.And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look at...

Bonds Are Roaring Back to Life: Should You Invest Now?

The US bond market has had a rough ride for much of the past two years, but the powerful rally over the last two months suggests the worst is over.Cherry-picking analytics from the recent crop of 2024...

Are Bond Yields Facing Historic Overbought Correction?

The past few years have seen interest rates soar. But perhaps it’s a case of too far, too fast.Today we look at interest rates in the form of treasury bond yields. And more specifically, the...

Rates Spark: Already Overshooting to the Downside

By Benjamin SchroederWhat a week it's been. Central bank anticipation first. Then, evidence of a holiday party at the Fed. Followed by failed attempts from Frankfurt and London to poop that party. But...

Rates Spark: Does the Fed Know Something We Don’t?

By Benjamin SchroederThe surprise from the FOMC was partly the extra 25bp implied cut added to 2024, but it was more the lack of pushback from Chair Powell on the 2024 rate cut narrative. He almost...

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