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Rates Spark: All About Inflation

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyThe rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more hawkish...

Rates Spark: Effective Pushback Looks Different

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederRates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...

Rates Spark: Looking Down, Just About

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederNothing like a few auctions to help test the temperature. Yields sailed lower yesterday through the 2-year and 5-year UST auctions, which did not help their...

Rates Spark: Feeble Pushback

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...

Rates Spark: Back to Competing Narratives

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

US 10-Year Bond Yield Confirms Elliott Wave Reversal: What Comes Next?

The 10-year US government bond yield was hovering around 3.75% when we first wrote about it in mid-February. Elliott Wave analysis led us to conclude that there was quite a good chance of it reaching...

US 10-Year Yield: Retreat Signals Market Now Expects Fed Pivot Soon

Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow....

Rates Spark: Shifting the Rate Cycle Discount

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...

Global Risk Asset Yields Edge Higher But Remain Below US 10-Year

Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...

Rates Spark: CPI Improvements

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...

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