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Have US Bond Yields Begun a New Long-Term Trend Higher?

Rising interest rates are beginning to spook investors. And rightfully so.It’s been the fastest rise in rates in decades. And just when we thought interest rates were easing, they pushed higher...

Has Treasury Market Misjudged Timing for Peak Rates Again?

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

U.S. 10-Year Yields Set to Face Stronger Headwinds as Inflation Eases

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing...

Emerging Market Bonds Soar in 2023, Outperforming U.S. Counterpart

The global rise in interest rates may be peaking, a view that’s helped lift most corners of foreign bond markets year to date, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug....

Short-Term Bonds Are a No-Brainer At This Point, but What About Long-Terms?

Global bonds rocked by Bank of Japan changes, Fitch downgrade, and Fed's outlook. Long-term bond market sees rare turbulence. Investors split: Buffett and Musk optimistic, Ackman bearish. A triple...

Distributions Help Lift Most Slices of U.S. Bond Market in 2023

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

U.S. 10-Year Yield Targets 6% After Breakout

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

Are We at or Near Peak Yields for Risk Assets?

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Bond Yields Well Above Inflation Rates Are a Great Investment Opportunity

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

Collapse of the 'Risk-Free' Delusion: Implications for the $133 Trillion Bond

Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history?The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the United States 30-Year Treasury collapsed by over 39%. Many other...

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