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Is Yield Curve Still a Reliable Recession Indicator?

The US yield curve is considered to be a good leading indicator of US recession, with an inversion of the curve invariably occurring prior to the start of a recession. However, a Wolf Street article...

10-Year US Treasury Yield: Unusually High Premium Is Finally Starting to Normalize

The premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield continued to fall in August relative to the “fair value” estimate based on a model developed by CapitalSpectator.com. The market rate remains moderately...

Bonds: 2019's Easing Cycle Set Stage for a Rally - 2024 to Follow a Similar Path?

2019 was the last year investors saw what could be called a “normal” easing cycle driven by macroeconomic growth concerns and falling S&P 500 EPS estimates. That was the third year of President...

The Best Bonds to Buy for a Recession

One year ago, I wrote to you that it was time to buy bonds again. The “index huggers” who only know SPY thought we were nuts for talking fixed income. The popular narrative at the time (which aged...

Beware of These 4 Yield Curve Patterns as Fast Un-Inversion Takes Hold

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Bond Market Momentum Firmly Bullish With All Eyes on Powell's Jackson Hole Address

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...

This Steady 14% Dividend Could Crush Stocks Well Into 2025

Stock market predictions, of course, are just that—predictions. All of them (including mine!) should be taken with a grain of salt. I normally prefer to avoid making them. But every now and then I...

Curve Spreads Climb Closer to Breakeven: What It Could Mean for the S&P 500

Signs of cooling inflation and a slowing but still growing economy have helped drive Treasury yields lower across the curve (today’s move notwithstanding). However, the recent shift on the yield...

10-Year Treasury Yield: Gap to Fair Value May Continue to Shrink Further

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...

Selloff in Junk Bonds Could Signal Trouble Ahead for Stocks

I wrote about long bonds TLT starting in June and how they could be the next big trade. They were but for a week or so only at this point. The reasoning was that high yields would start to come down...

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