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Bonds

Is a Lost Decade in the Offing for Bonds?

Through the above spreadsheet table, readers can take a look at various bond market asset class “annual” returns. A better comparison would be the CPI (annual) against the above...

Is There Still a Bull Case for Bonds?

For those who have been bullish bonds and calling for a rally throughout 2023, it has been on the back of falling growth and waning inflation such thesis have been based. By simply looking at the...

Long Bonds: Right Triangle Reversal Pattern Suggests More Declines in the Offing

Even though it’s hard for me to imagine some kind of “shock event” from the pre-open jobs report this Friday, I look forward to seeing how the market – – particularly the...

Bonds Are on Sale, Get Them While They're Still Cheap

The previous article discussed the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could temporarily upset the Treasury market,...

Corporate Debt Sends a Reassuring Message for Stocks

The US corporate bond market is sending a reassuring signal to stock investors that financing fundamentals remain supportive. Spreads of investment grade (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond...

What Is Next for Treasury Yields?

The Fed's minutes for their latest meeting held in July showed the committee's interest in raising interest rates further due to upside risks to inflation that are already well above their target...

Selloff in Bonds Is a Buying Opportunity

“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yields creep higher.Despite the highest yields in 15 years, some bearish bond traders think...

What Do 14-Year High Real Yields Mean for the Economy?

The last time you could lock in a real (inflation-adjusted) yield with inflation-adjusted Treasuries (TIPS), the world was still cleaning up the mess from the financial crisis. A lot has changed since...

Have US Bond Yields Begun a New Long-Term Trend Higher?

Rising interest rates are beginning to spook investors. And rightfully so.It’s been the fastest rise in rates in decades. And just when we thought interest rates were easing, they pushed higher...

Has Treasury Market Misjudged Timing for Peak Rates Again?

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

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