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Bonds

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rally Signals Uptrend Continuation

Earlier this month, while the US 10-year yield was at 3.9670%, we wrote that it was likely headed towards 5.50% in the months ahead. That prediction was based entirely on our Elliott Wave...

Turnaround Tuesday: Junk Bonds Flash Caution

Since the end of 2023 and throughout most of 2024, the high-yield, high-debt bonds have been on a tear. However, the party could be over. Could be. I follow the junk bonds closely, as they literally...

Has the Bond Market Rally Peaked Already?

Will the summer rally in bonds survive the autumn? Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to...

10-Year Yield Eyes Major Breakout - A Return to 5% Could Be Imminent

Stocks were modestly lower, but there was a clear risk-off tone throughout the day as rates rose sharply, along with the dollar. The CDX high-yield credit spread index also moved higher. Despite the...

High-Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds Are Red Hot - Are They Worth the Risk?

The case for international diversification from a US-investor perspective usually centers on how to carve up a global equities allocation. The global bond footprint, by contrast, tends to be an...

Long Bonds Struggle at Key Resistance - What It Means for Market's Risk Appetite

Are long bonds and interest rates the current political football? Sure seems that way considering all the FED talk and comments by Trump on rates and Jerome Powell. The last couple of days, after...

US 10-Year Yield Premium Narrows, Signaling a Return to Normalcy After 2023 Spike

The market premium for the US 10-year yield over a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in September. The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent...

US 10-Year Bond Yield Can Reach 5.50% in Final Push

A year ago, in early-October, 2023, when the 10-Year US bond yield was at 4.73%, we wrote that it was likely to peak around 5%, before heading back down to 3%. Since we don’t have any special...

Why Yield Curve’s 'Infallible' Recession Signal Failed This Time

There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve...

Where to Find the Best Buys Yielding 9%+ Amid the Bond Mania

I recently wrote about a trend that’s making income investors excited: After years of failing to produce decent returns, bonds are back. Media outlets, including Bloomberg, have picked up on this....

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