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Bonds
Nov 12, 2023
US Debt Crisis Signals End to Bond Age
US Treasury yields soared after Moody's (NYSE:MCO) switched to a negative outlook for the United States, hammering home the news that the BRICS alliance has officially surpassed the G7 economies. Make...
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Nov 10, 2023
Long Bonds: Is a Turning Point on the Horizon?
As I’ve mentioned in previous posts and webinars, the bond market is probably the least understood of the four capital markets. Most people’s eyes glaze over whenever it is mentioned....
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Nov 09, 2023
Rates Spark: The 4.5% Line in the Sand Is Breached
By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...
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Nov 08, 2023
Rates Spark: Supply Test Ahead
By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...
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Nov 07, 2023
Is the Bond Bear Market Finally Over or Just Hibernating?
Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted earlier: “On Wednesday,...
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Nov 06, 2023
What Would a Normally-Sloped Treasury Yield Curve Look Like?
Here’s the issue with all of the social media and the volumes of research on the bond markets: it’s not just whether interest rates (yields) are rising or falling, the shape of the...
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Nov 03, 2023
Rates Spark: US Jobs Data Can Be Key
By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...
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Nov 03, 2023
US 10-Year Note Looks to Break Above Channel Resistance
The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?"So far, following the FOMC decision, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report...
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Oct 31, 2023
Powell Exposes Europe’s Hidden War in the Bond Markets
The leaders of the European Union met last week to discuss how to rearrange the deck chairs on their political Titanic. While the decisions to continue to monetarily support Ukraine and now Israel...
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Oct 24, 2023
US 10-Year Yield: Is It Too Early to Cheer?
The 10-year Treasury yield respected the 5% level – this is not a big surprise. However, to join the cheers that the only way for the yield is down, I need to see a confirmation below 4.35%...
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