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Bonds

What Are Long Bonds Telling Us?

Those who read our Daily and follow us on the media know that we talk a lot about risk gauges.The big focus for me personally is the relationship between the S&P 500 and the long bonds...

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Set to Peak Post Fed Pause

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

U.S. Bonds Eased, Risk Assets Rallied Last Week

Buyers pushed up prices for most of the major asset classes last week. US bonds were the downside outliers, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 9).Government fixed-income markets...

Treasury Bonds on the Verge of Breaking Out

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Treasury Yield Curve Has to Normalize Eventually

Thinking about the Treasury yield curve the night before the May ’23 nonfarm payroll report, eventually, the Treasury yield curve has to return to a positive slope, meaning that short-maturity...

Bonds Poised to Outshine Equities by Wide Margin if Recession Hits

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had...

Long Treasuries Top Bond Market Returns This Year

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of...

Road to Lower Bond Yields Could Prove Rougher Than Expected

We have been vocal that long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment at current yield levels. However, timing the purchase of bonds will prove difficult as numerous headwinds may temporarily...

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Peaks as Fed Signals Pause

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

Treasury Bonds Poised for a Big Move

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes.Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...

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